This post examines whether competition law can remain effective in prospective AI development scenarios by looking at six variables for AI development: capability of AI systems, speed of development, key inputs, technical architectures, number of actors, and the nature and relationship of these actors. For each of these, we analyse how different scenarios could impact effective enforceability. In some of these scenarios, EU competition law would remain a strong lever of control; in others it could be significantly weakened. We argue that despite challenges to regulators‘ ability to detect and remedy breaches, in many future scenarios the effective enforceability of EU competition law remains strong. EU competition law can significantly influence AI development and help ensure that its future development is safe and beneficial. We hope that our scenario-based framework for analysing different possibilities for future development can assist with further work at this intersection.
