Key concepts
ParEvo is a web application designed to enable the participatory exploration and evaluation of alternative futures (or histories) using an evolutionary method to generate divergent narratives.
It is participatory in that it enables diverse groups to work together on constructing narratives about the future.
It is explorative in that it focuses on generating divergent future possibilities rather than making predictions about what is going to happen.
Evaluation is built into the heart of the ParEvo process, with a range of options for participants to evaluate the contributions and narratives produced, their perceptions of the process itself and their own involvement, and their reaction to the contributions of others, amongst other things.
At the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, we have used it primarily to construct alternative visions of possible futures that are relevant to large-scale global risks. However, it can also be used to construct different understandings of the historical processes that lead to a particular present event.
The process is evolutionary in that narratives are constructed in an iterative manner, with participants describing something that might have happened during a particular period of time (such as a calendar year) and in subsequent interactions participants are free to add to their own contribution or that of another participant, with contributions that are not built on being said to have ‘died out’, while those that are built on by more than one contribution then serving as part of multiple narratives that are free to diverge.
The narratives are divergent in that participants are free to focus on events or processes that are of particular interest to them or that they judge to be most likely or important and are not expected to come to collective judgements about what ‘ought’ to happen.
Purpose of the tool
The purpose of ParEvo is to explore a possibility space in creative and generative ways. This provides valuable information about both the nature of this possibility space and the beliefs and priorities of the participants who take part in the process. Depending on who is invited to participate it can also provide useful information about community dynamics between participants.
History and background
ParEvo was developed by Rick Davies. The design of the ParEvo process had its origins in his 1998 PhD thesis on organisational learning within non-governmental aid agencies based on an evolutionary epistemology. The same research led to the design of another method also using a social embodiment of the evolutionary algorithm known as Most Significant Change, now used widely for impact monitoring and evaluation in complex development projects. MSC is a convergent and optimising process in contrast to ParEvo which is more divergent and satisficing.
CSER’s involvement
ParEvo has been used in a number of exercises at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. It was first trailed internally within CSER in June 2021 to assess its fit for use within our research domains.
The first formal use of ParEvo was in November 2021 for an exercise designed by Tom Hobson and Lara Mani to explore possible future pathways for the governance of biosecurity and biotechnology research with a range of stakeholders from these domains.
A subsequent exercise conducted in April 2022 applied the tool to consider possible futures for CSER’s own domain of work seeking to explore possible futures for the evolution of the field of existential risk.
Most recently, we have also used it to explore governance options for geoengineering and how these might fair in the face of catastrophic climate change.
Where to get started
Anyone can explore the on-line ParEvo platform and register to use it free of charge at https://parevo.org/. Rick Davies is also available to work as a consultant to assist with implementation, facilitation, and evaluation.
Rick has also produced a short introductory paper outlining the methodology and how it can be implemented https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4261400
A slightly longer exploration of the method and its implementation at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is also available https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4363849
Tom Hobson, Lara Mani and Rick Davies also presented their work with ParEvo in an online webinar from the Centre for Excellence for Development Impact and Learning (CEDIL): https://youtu.be/Hlbpqfw_ve4
CSER's 3 top tips for using ParEvo
- The tool generates a large amount of data, and this can be analyzed in many ways. It can be used to both understand the scope of possible futures and the expectations and assumptions of the participants. There are many possible methodologies for analyzing this data set, from quantified text mining to deep textual analysis and network modelling, so knowing the method and purpose of analysis is important for successfully implementing the tool.
- ParEvo requires a significant commitment from participants. CSER's experience shows that this can be enjoyable and helps to bring diverse stakeholders together in a common project. However, it can also be stressful and time-consuming, so make sure that participants are fully briefed about what they are signing up for and that enough time is allowed for each iteration round for them to contribute without detracting from other obligations.
- Evaluation is key to the success of ParEvo. There are many evaluation options from post-exercise surveys to multi-day workshops to discuss the storylines and paths not taken. In general, feedback suggests that many participants welcome more space to evaluate and reflect on the storylines that have been produced and some may also appreciate being involved in aspects of the study design and analysis. So, this should never be seen as a mere afterthought to the exercise itself but as an essential part of the tool.