Purpose of the tool
The Stepping Stones Approach (SSA) attempts to formalise a strategy to achieving change in situations where power is highly concentrated in the hands of those strongly attached to the status quo, or who believe that significant improvement is not realistic. Confrontation is a common, perhaps default, approach of the powerless, but this can strengthen resistance to change when those with most power appear unassailable and unmovable. The SSA seeks to establish a collaborative relationship between actors that transcends traditional power imbalances and creates a process whereby an attachment to dangerous . It was developed with a focus on nuclear disarmament, but has relevance to all situations with these characteristics.
Key conepts
The SSA is a process designed to reinject energy and care into disarmament diplomacy and to draw the nuclear weapon states into inclusive, cooperative discussions with a view to early modest action that has intrinsic worth in reducing nuclear risk, that builds trust and foundations for further progress.
Its key characteristics involve a set of heuristics that govern the approach for governments and their practitioners, and an iterative learning cycle involving visioning, the generation of modest, pragmatic steps and a process of collective evaluation.
History and background
CSER researcher Paul Ingram formulated the Stepping Stones Approach in 2017 when he was Executive Director of the British American Security Information Council, alongside Andrès Jato of the Swedish Foreign Ministry. The key features of the context were:
- A poor strategic environment in which trust between the nuclear weapon states was low, particularly after Russian military action in eastern Europe (Georgia and Ukraine).
- Stalled progress on nuclear disarmament agenda for action agreed at the 2010 NPT Review Conference, stymied in every area by disagreement, leading to cynicism over the commitment of the nuclear weapon states.
- A strong desire in many states to see progress on reducing the existential threat of nuclear war, and the creation of a parallel intergovernmental process culminating in the negotiation of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, concluded in July 2017.
The SSA formed the basis of the intergovernmental Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament, a 16-nation collective that met a number of times at Foreign Minister level over 2019-22 and that injected some modest optimism into the process for some months. Unfortunately, the COVID pandemic not only delayed the 2020 NPT Review Conference and reduced the wind out of the sails of the Initiative, but then Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This drove a wedge between members had a major impact on the ability of Stockholm Initiative to function at all. Sweden and Finland’s stance towards Russia dramatically hardened and they applied for membership of NATO. Bridge-building with Russia very much took a back seat, and there was a deepening attachment to strategic, including nuclear, deterrence. Paul Ingram spoke on the Stepping Stones Approach at the August 2022 Review Conference in a side event alongside the heads of delegation from China, Sweden and Kazakhstan. Unfortunately, at that conference the Stockholm Initiative split, and its main statement, condemning Russia, lost support from three members: Kazakhstan, Indonesia and Ethiopia. Subsequently in 2023 Indonesia left the initiative soon after New Zealand’s departure. As of late 2023, the future of the Initiative, largely moribund at present, now hangs in the balance. The Stepping Stones Approach appeared to hold promise at a previous difficult time in strategic relations (2017-22), but is now on life support as member states have chosen to prioritise confronting Russia over their invasion of Ukraine.
Where to get started
The following resources describe the SSA in more detail
- Initial outline of the Stepping Stones Approach early in the process: Ingram, P., “Stepping Stones to Disarmament: making progress in a polarised international climate”, BASIC, April 2019.
- More substantial and evolved explanation of the Approach in advance of the Review Conference: Ingram, P., “The Stepping Stones Approach to Nuclear Disarmament Diplomacy: impact through collaboration”, BASIC, December 2021
- Commentary on the state of the Approach in early 2023: Paul, R. and Ingram, P., “Nuclear Diplomacy Crossroads: what future for the Stockholm Initiative in the eleventh NPT Review Cycle?”, BASIC, April 2023
Training sessions for diplomats have been conducted on the sidelines of intergovernmental meetings, in particular NPT Preparative Committees and UN General Assembly First Committees, with funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. These have explored the Approach, and in particular dimensions of managing various polarities within the international strategic security system and disarmament diplomacy in particular.
CSER's top tip
The Stepping Stones Approach is not a silver bullet, an exclusive approach to other strategies, nor appropriate to all situations. It an approach relevant to those that seek change but have little coercive or transactional power and who recognise that confrontation has limited or even negative value. It can have constructive impact by changing the nature of interactions and relationships, but may often appear ineffective, fail to account for justice, or deemed unsuitable at certain stages in a conflict. Certainly the attachment to position, particular outcomes, or the dominant lens of power (an ideology that could be seen as masquerading as analysis) can effectively block progress in diplomatic engagement. The SSA in relation to nuclear weapon diplomacy appears to be in retreat at present, but this is likely to be just an episode in the waxing and waning of diplomacy.
For more information, contact: Paul Ingram pi242@cser.ac.uk